Forecast: the Number of new jobs will increase by 3 million jobs

02.07.2020 11:24
The number of new jobs is expected to increase by 3 million jobs. The us dollar, which has retreated from its two-week rally, and stocks, which have just completed their best quarter in decades, are likely to react to news of the pandemic rather than economic statistics.
The national payroll is projected to grow by 3 million in June. After a may increase of 2.509 million and a reduction in April of 20.687 million. The spread in forecasts from 405,000 to 9,000,000 is unusually wide.
The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 12.3% from 13.3% in may and 14.7% in April. Average annual hourly earnings should fall to 5.3% from 6.7% in may and 8% in April, as low-paid workers return to their jobs. Wages will fall by 0.7% after falling by 1% in may, while working hours in June will fall to 34.5 from 34.7. The unexpected addition of NFP wage data in may, a revision of the ADP number that brought it in line with national indicators, and a 2.4 million increase in private wages in June puts the risk for June non-farm payrolls on the positive side.
The increase in the number of cases of virus infection in the United States has led to a moderate degree of risk aversion. It is unclear how much the new closures will affect the economy or where the pandemic is going. The answer to these two questions will affect stocks and the dollar more than economic statistics.

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