NFP data day in the US is coming soon (a day earlier due to the holiday Friday)
The US NFP data is due to be published at 15: 30 on Thursday 2 July 2020
What to expect from a preview from TD analysts, in short:
estimated job growth to 4.0 million after 2.5 million growth in may
A significant increase was noted by the analysis of fed economists
a rise of 6.5 million in two months would completely reverse less than a third of the 22 million decline in the previous two months, and the renewed uptrend in COVID cases warns against extrapolations.
Indeed, Homebase data shows a slowdown in the upward momentum for two weeks after the sample week.
The background in the foreign exchange market is sharply different from this data on wages compared to the unexpected growth in the report last month. The COVID curve was flattening, not growing now. The us dollar fell sharply as global stock markets outperformed the US compared to much more mixed exchange rate indicators.
The forecast from Scotia analysts is also + 4 million.
Initial jobless claims totaled about ten million people claiming assistance between the may and June reporting periods for the report, and therefore do not tend to increase employment. Continuing claims have dropped by about a million, suggesting that either benefits have ended or people have returned to work. None of the indicators were useful in predicting the 2.5 million jobs created in the may non-farm employment report, or the 3.8 million registered in the accompanying household survey.
The employment sub-indexes in the ISM-Manufacturing and ISM-Non-Manufacturing reports in the previous round also improved communication, which may mean improvement, but hiring new employees is one thing; calling in already hired workers is another.