WTI remains depressed below $40.00, as traders expect new tips

02.07.2020 05:46

WTI extends the previous day's reversal from $40.59.

Optimistic PMI data, EIA inventory cannot support oil prices.

The tone of risk is also struggling for a clear direction, despite escalating tensions between the US and China and viral problems.

NFP USA will adorn the economic calendar, these are quality catalysts to offer additional directions.


The price of WTI crude oil remains weak around $39.64, down 0.25% on the day, during the early Asian session on Thursday. The energy benchmark reversed from a one-week high, while maintaining its latest daily closing target below $40.00 since June 23.

According to the Energy information administration (EIA), the energy benchmark did not match the significant increase in us oil reserves. Data on changes in us crude oil inventories for the week ended June 26 shows that commercial inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels against the forecast of -0.71 million barrels and + 1.442 million previously.

In addition to optimistic stocks, better-than-forecast activity figures from China, the US and the Euro zone also suggested further growth in black gold. In addition, the soft us dollar served as an additional reason for optimism among energy bulls.

However, none of the above could counter traders ' concerns about the rapid spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United States. It may also put negative pressure on quotes, which may affect energy demand due to tensions between the US and China.
It is worth noting that the conflict between the US and Iran also did not support the price of crude oil.

Given the fear of traders reacting positively to positive data and news, market players can wait for the key us employment figures for June before predicting short-term changes. Forecasts suggest that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data will rise from 2,509 K to 3000K, while the unemployment rate will fall from 13.3% to 12.3%. Given the optimism about the recovery in the us jobs report, combined with the fears of oil traders, any disappointment will put additional downward pressure on black gold prices.

Technical analysis
The bearish rotation of Wednesday indicates the indecision of oil traders, which, in turn, may lead to a short-term pullback of quotations. However, bears will be serious opponents if WTI prices fall below $ 38, including the 21-day EMA and the five-week uptrend line.

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