The trader told, after what mark the bitcoin rally will end

31.07.2020 15:11
Nikita semov, a practicing trader and founder of the Crypto Mentors project, tells about the current situation on the market.

Bitcoin has repeatedly shown the perfect development of manipulation schemes, and now we want to share the most likely patterns of deception that can be misleading.
1. the First mistake is to long bitcoin too early. This error is primarily due to the habit of looking at the market exclusively through the prism of the seller. The main skill of a trader is to catch a change in the trend in time and join it. According to the VSA analysis, a weak seller's reaction from $10,500 and the subsequent JOC show the buyer's interest in forming a trend.

2. The next disconcerting boundary will be the $14,000 zone, from which there will be a significant pullback. The latter may be perceived by many market participants as a change in trend. Of course, this mark will be a correction, but not a reversal. I draw this conclusion from the analysis of Price Action, comparing the value of the sideways bar and the volume traded in it with the level indicated above.

3.the Third point is very similar to the first: paranoia and widespread search for deception from a large whale will convince most that the $14,000 breakout is a fiction.
The analysis of the profiles of the horizontal volume
Globally, we have come out of all the cost zones, and by and large nothing stops us from continuing the native.
If we talk about the $14,000 extreme, despite the increased vertical volumes, there are no significant cluster densities that can act as a hard resistance. At the moment of the elements of rigid fixation and the output of abnormal volumes in the countertrend were not detected, which indicates the continuation of the long trend.
Local perspective
Locally, the priority is absolutely long. In the database on the trend, we have a lot of boons (bars of the wrong level), which indicates the weakness of sales at the moment.
The appearance of reference bars and volume levels according to the VSA method in the four-hour and one-hour timeframes indicates the appearance of a large buyer absorbing the seller. The angle of attack of sales by Price Action is weak, which is why long-term scenarios are prioritized. The entry point (or the point for pyramiding along the trend) for a long time can be the level of $11,300, provided that there is a pulse breakout and a weak pullback to it.
The analysis of the profiles of the horizontal volume
At the moment, we are in a balanced environment with clear boundaries. However, it is worth highlighting the fact that we are being pushed out from below by much larger volumes. This indicates a strong pressure of buyers.
By analyzing the side histogram, you can also detect a POC offset to the lower part of the range, which favors longs.
Delta and open interest analysis
As we can see, the current balance was caused by a sharp fixation of long positions. This is due to both the sharp rally and the end of the month, when most large traders fix positions to make a profit.
However, now the activity of speculators has increased again, and the decreasing cumulative Delta in the sideways accumulation indicates an increase in positions through limit orders, which are so popular with large players. Thus, going beyond $10,800 is highly unlikely.
Conclusions
To sum up, the rally is still far from over. One of the most priority scenarios will be a breakdown of the important $11,300 zone. Also, a long-term, but lower-priority scenario will be a rollback to the zone $10 800 - 10 880.

The cancellation of the long scenario will be a departure below the $10,750 mark and a consolidation under this level.

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